In international trade, most of the international trade is transported by sea. In recent years, due to the epidemic and conflicts in some regions, shipping costs often change dramatically, which has brought great uncertainty to international trade.
Recently, shipping costs have continued to rise, causing trouble for some import and export orders. This time, the price increase of all routes mainly started from South America. The main reason for the price increase in South America is that Brazil will continue to impose tariffs on China’s new energy vehicles in July this year and in the future. BYD will build a factory in Brazil and is expected to ship 20,000 containers, resulting in insufficient capacity. COSCO withdrew the ship from the West African route and went to the South American route. As a result, the shipping costs of the West African route generally increased. In addition, in the US election, candidates have claimed that China will be subject to a 50-60% tariff in the future, which will in turn lead to some Chinese companies increasing their investment in South America. The European cargo volume is relatively stable, but due to the impact of the Houthi Red Sea crisis, the shipping period is long, resulting in an increase in the number of ships that need to be operated, which will also cause the ship’s capacity to be relatively insufficient. Combining the above objective factors, the subjective tacit cooperation of shipowners to increase prices is also a relatively large factor this time.
According to the experience of the professional freight forwarders we cooperate with and the future trend of shipping costs of some shipping companies:
1. The price increase trend of South American routes is expected to continue until early June (it is expected that the large container in Mexico will be US$6,000 and the large container in Brazil will be US$8,000).
2. The Middle East route is relatively stable, and it is a bit difficult to reduce prices. There is also resistance to price increases at present, and the price of shipping costs will drop slightly or remain unchanged.
3. European shipping companies have a strong desire to increase prices. There is a small amount of cargo to support shipping companies. There are 2-3 ships that do not come every month, which has a greater impact. CMA has two ships that do not go to the Port of Hamburg, which makes it difficult to find warehouses in the Port of Hamburg recently. It is expected that there will be no increase in June, and the large container is expected to be US$5,000 in late May.
4. Southeast Asia has a slight increase, with an expected increase of US$50 per week.
5. Africa is affected by the reduction in shipping capacity and the impression of general increases by shipping companies. East Africa is expected to be around US$3,500-4,000.
Response plan: If you do have a shipping plan, you can consider booking a few space in advance. In addition, you should also pay attention to the changes in booking shipment. If the designated shipment space are released slowly, it means that the space are indeed tight. You can ask the freight forwarder to check whether other people have canceled the space about 5 days before the ship leaves, and rush to book. For customers who are currently preparing to place orders, you can also place orders, because according to past experience, the ocean freight in July and August has always been the lowest in the whole year, so if you place an order now and deliver it one month later, the ocean freight should be at a better price.
The above is just the news I got after communicating with freight forwarder friends. If your goods are in a hurry to ship, book the space and send them away quickly, because time is money.
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